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Data Note: What if Per Enrollee Medicaid Spending Growth Had Been Limited to CPI-M from 2001-2011?

Table 1: Estimated Change in Federal Medicaid Spending under Federal Per Capita Cap, 2001-2011 ($ in millions)
State Aged People with Disabilities Adults Children Total
US Total  $(5,712)  $(47,194)  $(27,839)  $(46,983)  $(127,730)
Alabama  $(466)  $(514)  $(134)  $(1,824)  $(2,939)
Alaska  $(302)  $(339)  $(122)  $(420)  $(1,183)
Arizona  $1,639  $(2,287)  $(1,446)  $(4,654)  $(6,747)
Arkansas  $(1,601)  $(1,264)  $(349)  $(638)  $(3,853)
California  $(7,188)  $(10,335)  $(913)  $(2,827)  $(21,263)
Colorado  $90  $114  $(23)  $903  $1,085
Connecticut  $271  $(220)  $(174)  $(51)  $(174)
Delaware  $(198)  $(4)  $(298)  $(106)  $(607)
DC  $(253)  $(505)  $(246)  $(101)  $(1,105)
Florida  $(3,836)  $(5,386)  $(1,557)  $(2,504)  $(13,283)
Georgia  $(2,308)  $(1,665)  $(1,815)  $(761)  $(6,549)
Hawaii  $(86)  $(407)  $(290)  $344  $(439)
Idaho  $93  $(140)  $(109)  $(367)  $(523)
Illinois  $4,605  $2,995  $(28)  $(765)  $6,807
Indiana  $(427)  $(899)  $(473)  $(642)  $(2,440)
Iowa  $218  $150  $158  $(51)  $476
Kansas  $55  $867  $(31)  $(466)  $425
Kentucky  $(137)  $(1,185)  $(917)  $(943)  $(3,182)
Louisiana  $(1,577)  $(3,545)  $(466)  $(1,662)  $(7,250)
Maine  $(78)  $1,214  $23  $48  $1,207
Maryland  $(967)  $(2,575)  $(1,046)  $(1,108)  $(5,696)
Massachusetts  $(1,120)  $4,516  $(1,217)  $(2,961)  $(782)
Michigan  $4,263  $(178)  $538  $1,563  $6,185
Minnesota  $411  $(1,491)  $(987)  $(1,370)  $(3,437)
Mississippi  $(1,913)  $(2,178)  $(83)  $(484)  $(4,658)
Missouri  $24  $(1,186)  $(1,671)  $(2,958)  $(5,791)
Montana  $(132)  $(122)  $(60)  $(160)  $(474)
Nebraska  $507  $50  $(115)  $(434)  $7
Nevada  $(167)  $(511)  $(26)  $(42)  $(747)
New Hampshire  $(5)  $649  $(8)  $90  $727
New Jersey  $627  $(772)  $(487)  $(506)  $(1,138)
New Mexico  $(635)  $(1,764)  $(911)  $(1,809)  $(5,119)
New York  $3,440  $(6,524)  $1,724  $2,357  $996
North Carolina  $(177)  $(2,148)  $(1,125)  $(3,400)  $(6,850)
North Dakota  $(32)  $218  $(2)  $28  $212
Ohio  $(212)  $(2,635)  $(2,154)  $(1,429)  $(6,430)
Oklahoma  $(424)  $(457)  $(805)  $(875)  $(2,562)
Oregon  $(313)  $(615)  $(539)  $286  $(1,181)
Pennsylvania  $4,410  $(3,952)  $(3,020)  $(531)  $(3,092)
Rhode Island  $109  $848  $(242)  $(608)  $107
South Carolina  $(433)  $(357)  $(811)  $(1,228)  $(2,829)
South Dakota  $(67)  $(147)  $(92)  $(181)  $(486)
Tennessee  $(3,220)  $2,109  $(2,266)  $(1,179)  $(4,557)
Texas  $(1,670)  $(1,676)  $(210)  $(9,914)  $(13,469)
Utah  $58  $208  $(21)  $378  $623
Vermont  $(266)  $(212)  $(280)  $(275)  $(1,032)
Virginia  $38  $(1,139)  $(784)  $(1,876)  $(3,760)
Washington  $2,504  $(2,197)  $(153)  $(541)  $(386)
West Virginia  $(528)  $(414)  $(271)  $(708)  $(1,921)
Wisconsin  $1,736  $998  $(1,456)  $515  $1,793
Wyoming  $(73)  $(185)  $(48)  $(139)  $(445)
SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation and Urban Institute analysis of FFY 2000-2011 MSIS data.
Table 2: Estimated Percent Change in Federal Medicaid Spending under Federal Per Capita Cap, 2001-2011
State Aged People with Disabilities Adults Children Total
US Total -1% -6% -14% -12% -7%
Alabama -7% -5% -20% -26% -12%
Alaska -31% -15% -14% -22% -20%
Arizona 30% -17% -13% -38% -16%
Arkansas -28% -13% -39% -12% -17%
California -15% -12% -6% -8% -11%
Colorado 2% 2% -1% 24% 7%
Connecticut 3% -2% -7% -1% -1%
Delaware -19% 0% -21% -10% -11%
DC -12% -10% -20% -6% -11%
Florida -19% -15% -23% -16% -17%
Georgia -24% -10% -28% -6% -14%
Hawaii -5% -18% -18% 28% -6%
Idaho 7% -3% -21% -21% -7%
Illinois 42% 11% 0% -5% 11%
Indiana -5% -6% -18% -9% -7%
Iowa 5% 2% 10% -2% 3%
Kansas 2% 13% -3% -17% 3%
Kentucky -2% -8% -25% -12% -10%
Louisiana -25% -19% -25% -23% -21%
Maine -2% 18% 1% 2% 8%
Maryland -15% -18% -38% -19% -20%
Massachusetts -8% 19% -24% -34% -1%
Michigan 31% -1% 8% 14% 11%
Minnesota 5% -9% -25% -20% -10%
Mississippi -31% -19% -5% -9% -19%
Missouri 0% -6% -45% -28% -14%
Montana -8% -6% -26% -13% -9%
Nebraska 20% 1% -14% -18% 0%
Nevada -15% -18% -4% -2% -12%
New Hampshire 0% 28% -2% 7% 13%
New Jersey 5% -5% -19% -8% -3%
New Mexico -21% -22% -45% -26% -26%
New York 5% -6% 6% 9% 0%
North Carolina -2% -8% -23% -26% -13%
North Dakota -2% 13% 0% 5% 5%
Ohio -1% -7% -23% -13% -8%
Oklahoma -10% -5% -37% -13% -11%
Oregon -6% -8% -21% 7% -6%
Pennsylvania 19% -10% -45% -4% -4%
Rhode Island 7% 20% -31% -36% 1%
South Carolina -7% -3% -29% -18% -10%
South Dakota -7% -8% -24% -16% -11%
Tennessee -46% 10% -21% -11% -9%
Texas -8% -4% -2% -24% -11%
Utah 5% 4% -2% 13% 6%
Vermont -22% -9% -34% -20% -18%
Virginia 1% -10% -34% -32% -15%
Washington 37% -18% -4% -8% -1%
West Virginia -15% -5% -19% -22% -12%
Wisconsin 16% 7% -34% 13% 5%
Wyoming -13% -16% -27% -23% -18%
SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation and Urban Institute analysis of FFY 2000-2011 MSIS data.
Data Note

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