Medicaid Watch

In a new column, Dr. Drew Altman, KFF’s President and CEO, examines the different counts of the number of people on Medicaid that are currently in use, which range from 69 to 83 million, and why it might matter. He also discusses other ways to assess the reach of the program: “possibly it’s useful to explain why there are different numbers out there about what seemingly is an all-time simple question: how many people are on Medicaid,” Altman says.

Section 1115 Medicaid waivers can allow states to test new approaches in Medicaid that differ from what is required by federal law. This page tracks approved and pending waiver provisions (including expansions and restrictions) related to eligibility, benefits, and social determinants of health and other delivery system reforms.

This brief describes key challenges that Medicaid work requirements may pose for adults with mental health or substance use disorders. In May, the House passed a budget reconciliation bill that includes national Medicaid work requirements for adults in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expansion group.

Prior KFF analysis allocated CBO’s federal Medicaid spending reductions and enrollment losses across the states, and this policy watch builds on that analysis to examine the potential impacts in expansion states compared with non-expansion states.

On May 22, the House passed a budget reconciliation bill that includes significant changes to the Medicaid program. On June 16, the Senate Finance committee released proposed reconciliation language with some substantive changes to the Medicaid work requirement provisions, but this language may change as the Senate debates the bill. This issue brief provides an overview of the Medicaid work requirement provisions.

If Congress passes the reconciliation bill with the Finance Committee provision, 22 states might have to reduce their provider taxes on either hospitals or managed care organizations, cutting a key source of state Medicaid funding in those states. This policy watch explains how the Finance Committee provision would reduce states’ Medicaid spending, and the implications for expansion states.

On May 22, the House passed a budget reconciliation bill that includes significant changes to the Medicaid program. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $793 billion and reduce the number of people covered by Medicaid in 2034 by 10.3 million. Many of the reductions in coverage will be among the 22 million Medicaid enrollees ages 50 and older.

This analysis details the number of people who would become uninsured from policy changes in the ACA Marketplaces and Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, taken together, these changes will result in 16 million more uninsured people in the year 2034 than would otherwise be the case.

KFF is tracking the Medicaid provisions in the 2025 federal budget bill, including new Medicaid work and verification requirements and a reduction in the expansion match rate for states that use their own funds to cover undocumented immigrants.

On May 22, the House passed a reconciliation bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which would partially pay to extend expiring tax cuts by cutting Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $793 billion over ten years and 10.3 million fewer people would be enrolled in Medicaid in 2034, including 1.3 million people with Medicare, otherwise known as “dual-eligible individuals”.