How Much is Health Spending Expected to Grow?
This updated chart collection explores how health spending is expected to grow in coming years, based on National Health Expenditure (NHE) projections from federal actuaries.
Health spending is projected to reach $6.0 trillion (18.7% of the economy) in 2026, with hospitals making up the largest share of spending ($1.9 trillion). By 2034, health spending is expected to hit $9.0 trillion, making up over one-fifth of the U.S. economy. The annual percent change in health spending growth is estimated to have slowed to 6.3% in 2026, and growth is expected to slow further by 2027 (to 4.7%).
Several policy changes and changes in health utilization are expected to slow health spending growth in the coming years, including changes to Medicaid in the 2025 budget reconciliation law and the expiration of the ACA Marketplace enhanced premium tax credits in 2025. The Inflation Reduction Act’s Medicare prescription drug provisions and inflation rebates are also expected to slow Medicare prescription drug spending growth over the longer term, although higher rates of Medicare spending growth are projected in the near term.
The analysis can be found on the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, an information hub dedicated to monitoring and assessing the performance of the U.S. health system.
