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Two Year Trends in Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment Data: Findings from the CMS Performance Indicator Project

This brief provides an overview of recent trends in Medicaid and CHIP enrollment as of January 2016, based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) produced as part of its Performance Indicator Project.1 The project was designed to provide timely data on Medicaid and CHIP eligibility and enrollment that are intended to help strengthen data-driven program management and oversight efforts at both the national and state level (an overview of the data can be found in Appendix A). They also provide insight into Medicaid and CHIP eligibility and enrollment experiences as the ACA is implemented. This brief examines data as of January 2016 to be able to look at two full years of data post implementation of the major coverage provisions in the Affordable Care Act (ACA). All available months of data are available here: Total enrollment, Child enrollment.) The data show:

As of January 2016, 72.9 million people were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP. Over two-thirds of enrollees resided in states that have implemented the ACA Medicaid expansion.

Between Summer 2013 and January 2016, there was a net increase of nearly 15.5 million or 27% enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP among the 49 states reporting data for both periods. Most of this growth occurred in year one. Most of this growth was in large states in the West that implemented the Medicaid expansion.

Expansion states experienced significantly greater enrollment growth over the two year period, although there was variation across states. States that implemented the Medicaid expansion experienced over three times greater enrollment growth compared to states where the Medicaid expansion is not in effect (36% vs. 12%). Over the period, growth ranged from a high of 95% in Kentucky to slight decline in Wyoming and Nebraska.

Children account for a greater share of total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment in nearly all states that have not expanded Medicaid compared to states that have expanded. Reflecting higher eligibility levels for children, children accounted for a greater share of total Medicaid and CHIP enrollees in non-expansion states compared to states that have implemented the expansion to adults (68% vs. 44%).

Key Findings

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Filling the need for trusted information on national health issues, the Kaiser Family Foundation is a nonprofit organization based in Menlo Park, California.