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Analysis of 2016 Premium Changes in the Affordable Care Act’s Health Insurance Marketplaces

 

Updated Oct. 27, 2015 to include final rates for CA, ID, and NY, and an update to NM rates.

The table below presents an update to our previous analysis of 2016 changes in premiums for the second-lowest cost (“benchmark”) silver marketplace plans in major cities in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Among these major cities, the percent change from last year in the benchmark premium ranges from -10.6% in Seattle, Washington to 38.4% in Nashville, TN.  The simple average of these rate changes is 10.1% before accounting for the premium tax credit.

For a 40 year old making $30,000 per year, the average change after tax credits would be -0.2% (holding age and income constant). 2016 benchmark silver rates for a 40 year old will range from $183 per month in Albuquerque, NM to $719 per month in Anchorage, Alaska before accounting for the tax credit. If this 40 year old makes $30,000 per year, the premium paid by the consumer after the tax credit would range from $163 per month in Anchorage, Alaska to $206 per month in most of the country.

We added a new row showing the average premium change weighed by the 2015 effectuated enrollment for the state in which the city is located. Enrollment data are not available for all counties or cities. The weighted average increase is 3.6% across these cities, before accounting for the premium tax credit.

For comparison, these cities saw an average change of -0.3% in the benchmark premium from 2014 – 2015 (the weighted average decrease was also -0.3%) before accounting for the tax credit.

Table 1: Monthly Silver Premiums
for a 40 Year Old Non-Smoker Making $30,000 / Year
State Major City 2nd Lowest Cost Silver
Before Tax Credit
2nd Lowest Cost Silver
After Tax Credit
2015 2016 % Change from
2015
2015 2016 % Change from
2015
Average Percent Change 10.1% -0.2%
Weighted Change 3.6% -0.7%
Alabama Birmingham $264 $288 9.1% $208 $206 -1.0%
Alaska Anchorage $547 $719 31.4% $164 $163 -0.6%
Arizona Phoenix $177 $207 16.9% $177 $206 16.4%
Arkansas Little Rock $299 $310 3.7% $208 $206 -1.0%
California Los Angeles $258 $245 -5.0% $208 $206 -1.0%
Colorado Denver $211 $279 32.2% $208 $206 -1.0%
Connecticut Hartford $322 $318 -1.2% $208 $206 -1.0%
Delaware Wilmington $301 $356 18.3% $208 $206 -1.0%
DC Washington $242 $243 0.4% $208 $206 -1.0%
Florida Miami $274 $262 -4.4% $208 $206 -1.0%
Georgia Atlanta $255 $254 -0.4% $208 $206 -1.0%
Hawaii Honolulu $200 $262 31.0% $179 $182 1.7%
Idaho Boise $210 $273 30.0% $208 $206 -1.0%
Illinois Chicago $215 $198 -7.9% $208 $198 -4.8%
Indiana Indianapolis $329 $298 -9.4% $208 $206 -1.0%
Iowa Cedar Rapids $246 $284 15.4% $208 $206 -1.0%
Kansas Wichita $218 $248 13.8% $208 $206 -1.0%
Kentucky Louisville $212 $227 7.1% $208 $206 -1.0%
Louisiana New Orleans $296 $332 12.2% $208 $206 -1.0%
Maine Portland $282 $285 1.1% $208 $206 -1.0%
Maryland Baltimore $235 $249 6.0% $208 $206 -1.0%
Massachusetts Boston N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Michigan Detroit $230 $226 -1.7% $208 $206 -1.0%
Minnesota Minneapolis $183 $235 28.4% $183 $206 12.6%
Mississippi Jackson $305 $277 -9.2% $208 $206 -1.0%
Missouri St Louis $276 $287 4.0% $208 $206 -1.0%
Montana Billings $241 $322 33.6% $208 $206 -1.0%
Nebraska Omaha $264 $313 18.6% $208 $206 -1.0%
Nevada Las Vegas $237 $261 10.1% $208 $206 -1.0%
New Hampshire Manchester $247 $261 5.7% $208 $206 -1.0%
New Jersey Newark $316 $330 4.4% $208 $206 -1.0%
New Mexico Albuquerque $171 $183 7.0% $171 $183 7.0%
New York New York City $372 $369 -0.8% $208 $206 -1.0%
North Carolina Charlotte $326 $409 25.5% $208 $206 -1.0%
North Dakota Fargo $272 $304 11.8% $208 $206 -1.0%
Ohio Cleveland $247 $234 -5.3% $208 $206 -1.0%
Oklahoma Oklah. City $219 $295 34.7% $208 $206 -1.0%
Oregon Portland $213 $261 22.5% $208 $206 -1.0%
Pennsylvania Philadelphia $268 $276 3.0% $208 $206 -1.0%
Rhode Island Providence $260 $263 1.2% $208 $206 -1.0%
South Carolina Columbia $276 $314 13.8% $208 $206 -1.0%
South Dakota Sioux Falls $257 $309 20.2% $208 $206 -1.0%
Tennessee Nashville $203 $281 38.4% $203 $206 1.5%
Texas Houston $250 $256 2.4% $208 $206 -1.0%
Utah Salt Lake City $215 $244 13.5% $208 $206 -1.0%
Vermont Burlington $436 $468 7.3% $208 $206 -1.0%
Virginia Richmond $260 $276 6.2% $208 $206 -1.0%
Washington Seattle $254 $227 -10.6% $208 $206 -1.0%
West Virginia Huntington $289 $341 18.0% $208 $206 -1.0%
Wisconsin Milwaukee $333 $326 -2.1% $208 $206 -1.0%
Wyoming Cheyenne $407 $426 4.7% $208 $206 -1.0%
SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of premium data from Healthcare.gov and insurer rate filings to state regulators. For more information see “Analysis of 2016 Premium Changes and Insurer Participation in the Affordable Care Act’s Health Insurance Marketplaces” June, 2015.
NOTES: Weighted changes are calculated using average benchmark premiums in the city, weighted by the state’s effectuated enrollment as of mid-2015.

Note: Based on information from Healthcare.gov, a previous version of this analysis reported a 40.9% increase in Albuquerque, NM. However, a low-cost insurer had not filed appropriate forms and was temporarily excluded from the Healthcare.gov window shopping tool. The table above now reflects premium information provided by the New Mexico Insurance Department, which indicates a benchmark increase of 7.0%.

 

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