KFF Survey of Women Voters: Key Takeaways

The KFF Survey of Women Voters examines the attitudes, motivations, and voting intentions of women voters nationally—and in two battleground states, Arizona and Michigan—fewer than six months prior to the 2024 election. This project was intentionally designed to provide insights into the largest, and very diverse, dynamic, and influential voting group in this country: women.

Women voters will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential and down-ballot elections, including the future of abortion access in many states. And while women voters constitute a majority of all voters in most elections, they are a diverse voting bloc with varying opinions and experiences across partisanship, race and ethnicity, and age. This survey is unique in its ability to report on a nationally representative sample of some of the most important groups of women voters including Black women voters, Hispanic women voters, women voters across age groups including those of reproductive age (ages 18-49), women voters by partisanship, and White women (who are the largest group of voters, representing about two-fifths of the total electorate, but rarely vote as a monolith).

As voters weigh their options for the presidency and Congress, as well as decide the future of abortion access in some states through ballot initiatives, the KFF Survey of Women Voters highlights the deciding factors for women voters this fall. The results presented below are from a multi-mode survey of more than 3,000 women voters from state registration voter files, including 1,383 women voters living across the U.S. as well as 928 women voters in Arizona and 876 Michigan women voters. The KFF Survey of Women Voters Dashboard includes more data from the survey, as well as the topline and methodology. View all reports from this survey.

Key Takeaways From the National Poll

Any path to the presidency for either President Biden or former President Trump requires maintaining the support they received among segments of women voters in 2020 and gaining votes among other groups of women voters. A path to victory for President Biden would need to include strong support from Black women voters, as well as support among Hispanic women voters and suburban women. A path to victory for former President Trump necessitates motivating Republican women to turn out as well as making gains among groups that haven’t voted for him in previous elections. The KFF Survey of Women Voters points to a close presidential election where small shifts in voter turnout or voting across the political aisle could make a big difference in determining the outcome of the race.

Most Women Voters Are Frustrated and Anxious About the Presidential Race, Say They Are Unsatisfied with their Options

Women voters are not overly enthusiastic about the upcoming 2024 presidential election, with six in ten saying they aren’t satisfied with their choices for president and one in five (21%) saying they are “less motivated” to vote in this election compared to previous ones. More than one in four independent women voters¹ (31%), Black women voters (28%), and Hispanic women voters (27%) say they are less motivated to vote this year. More than half of these groups of women, who both candidates hope to persuade, say they are not satisfied with their options for president including more than three-fourths of independent women voters. Check out the dashboard to see why women voters say they are dissatisfied with their choices for president.

Most women voters say they feel “frustrated” or “anxious” about the upcoming presidential election. Far fewer say they are “hopeful” (53%) or “enthusiastic” (33%). But this doesn’t mean they are apathetic; only one in five women voters say they are “uninterested” in the election. The poll suggests Republican women are slightly more motivated to vote (53% say this compared to 44% of Democratic women voters) and more likely to report feeling hopeful and enthusiastic about the election.²

Biden Supporters Prioritize Candidate Characteristics, Trump Supporters Say They Are Voting on the Issues

Voters make decisions about which candidates to support based on a variety of factors, but most women voters who plan to vote for former President Trump say their support isn’t necessarily based on his leadership ability, character, values, or experience. Rather, half of women who plan to vote for Trump say the candidates’ stances on specific issues will make the biggest difference in how they vote. By comparison, two-thirds of women who plan to vote for President Biden say the candidates’ personal characteristics matter most to their vote. With both presidential candidates well-known to the electorate, it appears many women voters, namely Black women voters, Hispanic women voters, and older women voters, say the candidates’ leadership ability, character, values, and experience are driving their decisions. These are all groups that President Biden is hoping will turn out in support of his candidacy, but currently he is garnering larger shares of support only among Black women. While President Biden currently has an advantage among younger women voters, ages 18 to 29, this group values candidates’ stances on specific issues and personal characteristics similarly.

Turning Out the Base Will Be Key for Both Presidential Candidates

Half of the most consistent women voters, those who have routinely shown up to vote in the past three elections (if they were age eligible in 2016) including the 2022 midterm election, say they plan on voting for President Biden – suggesting that, encouraging these routine voters to turn out could be an important part of his strategy. But support for President Biden among younger Democratic women may be weaker. Former President Trump has support among the vast majority of Republican women regardless of age, something that isn’t mirrored for President Biden and his support among Democratic women. About nine in ten Republican women ages 18 to 49, and 50 and older say they plan on voting for former President Trump. In comparison, while nine in ten Democratic women ages 50 and older say they plan on voting for President Biden, this drops to a smaller majority (77%) of Democratic women ages 18 to 49 – which could matter in states with close presidential races.

A majority (70%) of Black women voters – a group that President Biden won overwhelmingly in 2020 (90% of Black women voters voted for President Biden according to exit polls), say they plan on voting for President Biden, but now about one in six say they may either stay home on Election Day or vote for a third-party candidate.

In addition, while most women who voted in 2020 say they are going to pick the same candidate this year, about one in six women who voted for Biden in 2020 say they will either not vote or will vote for a different candidate this year, including 7% who say they plan to vote for former President Trump. By contrast, just 1% of women voters who voted for Trump in 2020 say they plan on voting for Biden in 2024.

Inflation Dominates Top Issues For Women Voters; Younger Women Voters Also Identify U.S. Involvement in the War Between Israel and Hamas in Gaza as a Voting Concern

Four in ten women voters say inflation is the most important issue determining their vote in the 2024 presidential race. This is followed by about one in five (22%) who say threats to democracy is the most salient issue for them. Fewer say immigration and border security (13%), abortion (10%), gun policy (4%), the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza (3%), or the war in Ukraine (1%) are the most important issues for them headed into this election. While inflation is among the top voting issues for many key groups of women voters (including Black women, Hispanic women, younger women, Democratic women, and Republican women overall) there are differences in issue priority not only by partisanship, but also age.

For example, women voters ages 50 and older are divided by partisanship on their top voting issue. More than a third of older Republican women cite immigration (36%) and inflation (37%) as their top issue, while half of older Democratic women say “threats to democracy” is the most important issue determining their vote. Democratic women overall, are more likely than Republican women and independent women to say threats to democracy are their most important voting issue. Click here to see the ranking of voting issues among various groups of women voters.

In addition to ranking inflation as a top issue, many women voters also say they worry about the cost of everyday expenses, and large shares do not trust either political party to handle the rising costs they face. This emphasis on inflation is especially notable given that many within President Biden’s base don’t approve of his handling of this issue. Nearly half of Democratic women voters overall and, within Democratic voters, most younger women (72%), Black women (55%), Hispanic women (57%), and lower-income women (55%) do not approve of how President Biden is handling inflation.

While not a top issue for women voters overall, there are signs that the war between Israel and Hamas may be a weakness for Biden among his base, particularly younger women. About half of Democratic women voters disapprove of President Biden’s handling of the U.S. involvement in the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, increasing to more than eight in ten (83%) younger women, ages 18 to 29 who identify as Democrats.

While President Biden has an overall advantage over former President Trump among younger women voters, a majority of younger Democratic women are unsatisfied with their options for president, and when asked why they were unsatisfied with Biden as the Democratic nominee, 16% offered responses related to the loss of life in the conflict and ongoing U.S. military aid to Israel. See the dashboard to learn what younger women voters say on this issue. Majorities of Democratic women voters approve of how President Biden is handling other key issues such as student loan repayments, health care affordability, abortion and reproductive health, and immigration.

A large majority of Republican women approve of the way former President Trump’s handled various issues during his time as president. See the dashboard here for more information.

Abortion and Reproductive Health

Two years after the Supreme Court Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, the KFF Survey of Women Voters finds age, partisanship, and state dynamics all play a role in whether the issue of abortion is motivating voters in the upcoming election.

Pro-Choice, Younger Women Are More Likely than Counterparts to say Abortion Is the Most Important Issue Determining Their Vote

While not the top voting issue for any group of women voters, one in ten women voters say abortion is the most important issue determining their vote. This includes 12% of Black women voters, 11% of White women voters, 7% of Hispanic women voters. The issue also resonates more with younger women voters, with 13% of women voters of reproductive age (ages 18 to 49) saying abortion is their most important voting issue, increasing to one in five women voters ages 18 to 29.

In a reversal of the make-up of abortion voters in the past several presidential elections, Democrats are now more likely than Republicans to say abortion is the most important issue in their presidential voting decision (13% v. 7%). This is especially true of Democrats living in states with laws restricting abortion. Nearly one in six (15%) Democratic women voters living in states where abortion is banned or limited say abortion is their most important voting issue.³ Less than one in ten Republicans, regardless of where they live, say the same. Overall, three in four voters who say abortion is their top issue identify as pro-choice (compared to 67% of all women voters) and about half want abortion to be legal in all cases (compared to 36% of all women voters).

Many of these voters expect changes to federal laws on abortion after the election – especially if former President Trump is elected. More than half of abortion voters (58%) say if former President Trump is elected for a second term, it is “very likely” he will sign a federal law banning abortion in the U.S. after 15 weeks. A third (36%) of abortion voters say it is “very likely” that President Biden will sign a law granting a federal right to abortion until the point of fetal viability if he is elected.

Regardless of whether it is the most important issue in their presidential vote, most women voters say that the stakes of this election are high when it comes to future reproductive health access. Half of women (54%) say they think this year’s presidential election will have a “major impact” on access to abortion and reproductive health care in the U.S and four in ten (43%) say this year’s presidential election will have a “major impact” on abortion and reproductive health care in their own state.

Overall, half (52%) of women voters, including at least six in ten of those ages 18 to 29 (62%) and Democratic women (63%), and half of independent women voters (54%) say the presidential candidates haven’t spent enough time talking about abortion policy during this election. A smaller share (36%) of Republican women say the same – indicating an opportunity for President Biden in upcoming presidential debates. Vice President Harris has largely been front-and-center on this issue, a strategy that seems supported by most Democratic women with about eight in ten saying they trust her to speak about abortion policy, as do about nine in ten voters who say abortion is their most important voting issue.

More Than Half of Democratic Women Living in States Where Abortion May Be on the Ballot Say They Are More Motivated To Vote, and Say They Plan on Voting for President Biden

As of mid-June, there are 10 states where voters may be deciding on abortion access on Election Day. Democratic women voters living in states where abortion may be on the ballot are more likely than those in other states to say that this year’s presidential election will have a major impact on access to abortion and reproductive health care in their state. Additionally, more than half (53%) say they are “more motivated” to vote in this year’s presidential election while more than half (57%) of Democrats living in states where abortion is not on the ballot say they are just as motivated or less motivated.

And eight in ten (83%) Democratic women living in states where abortion may be on the ballot say they are “absolutely certain” to vote this year – suggesting that abortion-related ballot measures may encourage some Democratic voters to turnout, as was the case in the 2022 midterm elections following the Dobbs decision.

In fact, Democratic women living in states where abortion may be on the ballot are more likely than Democratic women living in other states to say they plan on voting for President Biden (92% v. 82%). One in ten Democratic women living in states without abortion on the ballot say they either don’t plan on voting or plan on voting for a third-party candidate. While President Biden seems to have a voting advantage among this group, it is not just because they are more favorable towards him broadly. Democratic women voters living in states where abortion may be on the ballot are no more positive in their assessments of President Biden and are just as likely to say they are unsatisfied with their options for president.

Most Women Want Laws Protecting Access to Abortion for Pregnancy-Related Emergencies and in the Case of Rape or Incest

Views on whether abortion should be legal are largely divided along party lines with large majorities of Democratic women (91%) and independent women (81%) saying abortion should be legal, compared to half of Republican women who say abortions should be either illegal in all or most cases. In addition, most Republican women voters support a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks, and most Democratic women support a law guaranteeing a national right to abortion. However, there is some agreement on access to abortion in some instances. For example, there is consistent support, across partisans, for laws protecting access to abortions for patients who are experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies and in the case of rape or incest.

This is true even in states where abortion is currently banned or limited. At least three-fourths of women (79%) living in states where abortion is currently restricted say they support a federal law protecting access to abortion in cases of rape or incest, including 88% of Democratic women and 66% of Republican women living in these states. In addition, 90% of Democratic women and 76% of Republican women living in states where abortion is banned or limited want laws protecting access to abortions for patients who are experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies.

Key Takeaways From Michigan and Arizona

The KFF Survey of Women Voters also includes separate surveys of women voters in Arizona and Michigan, two states that President Biden won in 2020 with very close margins (less than 3 percentage points in Michigan and less than 1 percentage point in Arizona) and are seen as key battleground states in the 2024 election. Yet, no battleground state is alike, and the KFF Survey of Women Voters demonstrates that each of these states pose very distinct races for the presidential candidates as well as elections for the U.S. Senate.

Majority of Arizona Women Voters Say They Plan on Supporting the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative, See It as a Motivating Force to Turnout

Abortion is weighing heavily on the minds of Arizona women voters. Voters in Arizona may be voting on the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative this November, a proposed state constitutional amendment which would establish a fundamental right to abortion until fetal viability, typically around 23 to 25 weeks of pregnancy. Under current Arizona law, abortions are legal until 15 weeks, though abortion laws have been in flux since the state Supreme Court first ruled in April that an 1864 law criminalizing all abortions was enforceable. Since then, the state legislature repealed the law, but it may go into effect for some period of time before the November election.

Two-thirds (67%) of women voters in Arizona say they support the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative which may appear on the ballot this fall. The ballot measure has strong support among independent women (68%) and Democratic women voters (91%), while most Republican women (61%) say they oppose the initiative.

Overall, half of women voters in Arizona say they would be more motivated to vote if the abortion initiative made it on the ballot, including large groups of voters who support the ballot initiative such as Democratic women voters (60%), and women of reproductive age (58%), including three-fourths (74%) of the youngest women voters ages 18-29. This is especially important given that one in four women voters ages 18 to 29 in Arizona say they don’t plan on voting in the 2024 presidential election or plan on voting for a third-party candidate.

Yet, a majority of women voters in Arizona, including those who say the ballot measure would motivate them to turn out, say there is a possibility they could vote for a candidate who doesn’t share their view on abortion. In fact, most say a candidate’s position on abortion is just one of many important factors in their vote choice including 54% of Democratic women, 66% of independent women, and 64% of Republican women. And abortion ranks alongside a series of other issues and behind inflation and immigration as top voting issues for the 2024 presidential race among women voters in Arizona. Check out the dashboard to see where abortion ranks as a voting issue among groups of Arizona women voters.

Many Michigan Women See Abortion as a Settled Issue in Their State

Abortion is no longer front of mind for Michigan women, who turned out in record numbers in the 2022 midterm elections to enshrine the right to an abortion into the state constitution. The majority of Michigan women voters, including 69% of Democratic women say the issue of whether abortion is legal is “decided” in their state.

Inflation is Top Issue for Michigan Women

For Michigan women, inflation ranks as the most important issue for both Black women and White women in the state. It ranks among the top issues across partisans. Check out the dashboard to see the top issues for Michigan women voters. And while Democratic women voters in Michigan largely approve of the way President Biden has handled abortion and reproductive health, they are much more critical of his handling of inflation and the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. In fact, a statewide campaign to protest President Biden providing military aid to Israel and to demand a permanent ceasefire in Gaza led to a historic number of “uncommitted” votes (13%) in the 2024 Democratic primary election in the state.

Black women are going to be a necessary component of Biden’s strategy if he plans on winning Michigan’s electoral votes. Currently, President Biden isn’t generating the same level of support among Black women in Michigan that he did in 2020 with about one in five Black women (18%) now saying they plan on voting for former President Trump. Black women in Michigan are about three times as likely as White women to say the political party of candidates makes the biggest difference in how they vote for president, indicating that despite lower support for President Biden, they may vote for him because he is the Democratic Party candidate.

Yet, the cost of household expenses is causing worries for a majority of Black women in Michigan with at least six in ten saying the worry about affording the cost of health care (64%), their rent or mortgage (69%), their monthly utilities (70%), and food and groceries (75%). While a slight majority of Black women voters in Michigan say the Democratic Party does a better job than the Republican Party of addressing the cost of household expenses, three in ten say neither party does a better job of this. In addition, four in ten Black Democratic women say they disapprove of President Biden’s handling of inflation, perhaps why some Black women voters in the state may no longer support the Democratic presidential candidate. Check out the dashboard to see more about the views of Black women in Michigan.