Medicare Advantage and Traditional Medicare: Is the Balance Tipping?
| Table 1: The 5 Largest Counties by Penetration Group, 2015 | ||||
| State | County | Medicare Beneficiaries, 2015 | Medicare Advantage Penetration Rate, 2015 | Average Annual Medicare Advantage Penetration Growth Rate, 2010 -2015 |
|
All Counties MA Penetration >50 |
||||
| Florida | Miami-Dade | 420,702 | 62% | 4% |
| California | Riverside | 321,249 | 57% | 4% |
| Florida | Broward | 283,971 | 54% | 3% |
| California | San Bernardino | 257,419 | 58% | 4% |
| Pennsylvania | Allegheny | 247,434 | 62% | 1% |
| All Counties MA Penetration 40-50% | ||||
| California | Los Angeles | 1,344,850 | 48% | 5% |
| Arizona | Maricopa | 587,995 | 43% | 0% |
| California | San Diego | 463,635 | 47% | 3% |
| California | Orange | 443,197 | 47% | 3% |
| New York | Kings | 340,846 | 41% | 4% |
| All Counties MA Penetration 30-40% | ||||
| Texas | Harris | 465,027 | 39% | 7% |
| Michigan | Wayne | 312,564 | 32% | 16% |
| Nevada | Clark | 294,530 | 39% | 2% |
| Florida | Palm Beach | 288,386 | 37% | 4% |
| Texas | Dallas | 286,947 | 30% | 9% |
| All Counties MA Penetration 20-30% | ||||
| Illinois | Cook | 769,309 | 23% | 20% |
| New York | Suffolk | 266,811 | 21% | 5% |
| Massachusetts | Middlesex | 248,347 | 23% | 0% |
| New York | Nassau | 244,636 | 24% | 4% |
| New York | Westchester | 162,885 | 24% | 7% |
| All Counties MA Penetration 10-20% | ||||
| New Jersey | Bergen | 158,800 | 14% | 6% |
| New Jersey | Ocean | 142,923 | 18% | 5% |
| Maryland | Montgomery | 142,262 | 10% | 5% |
| Massachusetts | Essex | 142,201 | 19% | 2% |
| Illinois | DuPage | 138,544 | 17% | 29% |
| All Counties MA Penetration 0-10% | ||||
| Maryland | Baltimore | 146,830 | 9% | 0% |
| Delaware | New Castle | 89,223 | 10% | 17% |
| Maryland | Anne Arundel | 83,847 | 6% | -1% |
| New Hampshire | Hillsborough | 69,740 | 8% | 4% |
| California | Monterey | 57,418 | 2% | 10% |
| SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS MA State/County Penetration Files, March 2015. | ||||
| Table 2: The 50 Largest Counties with the Highest Medicare Advantage Penetration Rate, 2015 – Sorted high to low by Medicare Advantage Penetration Rate, 2015 |
||||
| State | County | Medicare Beneficiaries, 2015 | Medicare Advantage Penetration Rate, 2015 | Average Annual Medicare Advantage Penetration Growth Rate, 2010 – 2015 |
| Pennsylvania | Westmoreland | 84,964 | 66% | 1% |
| New York | Monroe | 142,272 | 63% | 1% |
| Pennsylvania | Allegheny | 247,434 | 62% | 1% |
| Florida | Miami-Dade | 420,702 | 62% | 4% |
| Oregon | Clackamas | 71,193 | 61% | 1% |
| California | San Bernardino | 257,419 | 58% | 4% |
| Oregon | Multnomah | 110,238 | 58% | 2% |
| Oregon | Marion | 55,898 | 58% | 1% |
| Oregon | Washington | 74,146 | 57% | 2% |
| California | Riverside | 321,249 | 57% | 4% |
| Louisiana | Jefferson | 79,016 | 57% | 3% |
| New York | Erie | 185,347 | 56% | 2% |
| Minnesota | Dakota | 57,488 | 55% | 5% |
| Minnesota | Hennepin | 174,325 | 55% | 4% |
| Minnesota | Ramsey | 81,420 | 55% | 4% |
| Colorado | Jefferson | 92,064 | 54% | 1% |
| Washington | Clark | 73,150 | 54% | 3% |
| New York | Bronx | 187,059 | 54% | 5% |
| Florida | Broward | 283,971 | 54% | 3% |
| Florida | Pasco | 113,780 | 53% | 4% |
| Colorado | Adams | 53,543 | 53% | 1% |
| North Carolina | Forsyth | 63,689 | 53% | 3% |
| Ohio | Stark | 78,836 | 52% | 3% |
| Florida | Hernando | 52,948 | 52% | 5% |
| Ohio | Summit | 101,919 | 52% | 5% |
| Ohio | Mahoning | 52,328 | 51% | 4% |
| Oregon | Lane | 73,866 | 51% | 2% |
| North Carolina | Guilford | 84,408 | 50% | 7% |
| Michigan | Kent | 96,075 | 50% | 9% |
| Colorado | Denver | 83,249 | 50% | 2% |
| New Mexico | Bernalillo | 111,188 | 49% | 3% |
| Ohio | Montgomery | 104,217 | 49% | 4% |
| Texas | El Paso | 113,527 | 49% | 9% |
| Ohio | Franklin | 162,974 | 48% | 5% |
| Texas | Nueces | 53,651 | 48% | 5% |
| Hawaii | Honolulu | 165,753 | 48% | 3% |
| California | Los Angeles | 1,344,850 | 48% | 5% |
| California | Orange | 443,197 | 47% | 3% |
| Pennsylvania | Dauphin | 50,092 | 47% | 3% |
| Florida | Polk | 133,749 | 47% | 7% |
| Florida | Hillsborough | 202,003 | 47% | 4% |
| California | San Diego | 463,635 | 47% | 3% |
| Idaho | Ada | 62,962 | 47% | 3% |
| Arizona | Pima | 187,732 | 47% | 2% |
| Florida | Pinellas | 219,663 | 46% | 5% |
| California | Contra Costa | 175,189 | 46% | 1% |
| Florida | Volusia | 128,192 | 46% | 4% |
| Louisiana | Orleans | 55,895 | 46% | 4% |
| Washington | Snohomish | 106,900 | 45% | 5% |
| California | Placer | 71,991 | 45% | 0% |
| NOTE: Only counties with more than 50,000 Medicare beneficiaries are included. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS MA State/County Penetration Files, March 2015. |
||||
| Table 3: The 50 Largest Counties with the Lowest Medicare Advantage Penetration Rate, 2015 – Sorted low to high by Medicare Advantage Penetration Rate, 2015 |
||||
| State | County | Medicare Beneficiaries, 2015 | Medicare Advantage Penetration Rate, 2015 | Average Annual Medicare Advantage Penetration Growth Rate, 2010 – 2015 |
| California | Monterey | 57,418 | 2% | 10% |
| Delaware | Sussex | 56,315 | 5% | 20% |
| Maryland | Anne Arundel | 83,847 | 6% | -1% |
| New Jersey | Atlantic | 51,231 | 8% | 0% |
| New Hampshire | Rockingham | 55,764 | 8% | 5% |
| New Hampshire | Hillsborough | 69,740 | 8% | 4% |
| Maryland | Baltimore | 146,830 | 9% | 0% |
| Delaware | New Castle | 89,223 | 10% | 17% |
| Maryland | Montgomery | 142,262 | 10% | 5% |
| New Jersey | Morris | 82,111 | 10% | 2% |
| Massachusetts | Barnstable | 68,530 | 11% | 4% |
| Illinois | Lake | 97,077 | 12% | 34% |
| California | San Luis Obispo | 54,536 | 12% | -1% |
| Virginia | Fairfax | 132,787 | 12% | 5% |
| District of Columbia | Washington | 87,367 | 13% | 6% |
| Maryland | Baltimore City | 96,704 | 13% | -1% |
| California | Tulare | 56,553 | 13% | 5% |
| New Jersey | Monmouth | 111,656 | 13% | 4% |
| New Jersey | Mercer | 62,089 | 14% | 3% |
| New Jersey | Bergen | 158,800 | 14% | 6% |
| Maryland | Prince George’s | 113,587 | 14% | 4% |
| Massachusetts | Plymouth | 96,905 | 14% | 0% |
| California | Santa Barbara | 69,527 | 15% | -5% |
| Indiana | Lake | 85,379 | 15% | 34% |
| New Jersey | Middlesex | 122,907 | 15% | 6% |
| Massachusetts | Bristol | 110,259 | 15% | 3% |
| Virginia | Va. Beach City | 62,735 | 16% | 7% |
| Alabama | Madison | 57,237 | 16% | 8% |
| South Carolina | Horry | 72,635 | 16% | 11% |
| New Jersey | Burlington | 80,871 | 16% | 0% |
| New York | Orange | 56,986 | 17% | 13% |
| Illinois | DuPage | 138,544 | 17% | 29% |
| New Jersey | Camden | 88,147 | 18% | 1% |
| New York | Dutchess | 53,869 | 18% | 10% |
| New Jersey | Ocean | 142,923 | 18% | 5% |
| South Carolina | Charleston | 63,423 | 18% | 11% |
| New York | Rockland | 53,270 | 18% | 6% |
| Connecticut | New London | 50,507 | 18% | 12% |
| Arkansas | Pulaski | 69,860 | 18% | 9% |
| Massachusetts | Norfolk | 119,955 | 18% | -1% |
| New Jersey | Passaic | 76,897 | 18% | 8% |
| Massachusetts | Essex | 142,201 | 19% | 2% |
| Iowa | Polk | 65,437 | 19% | 4% |
| New Jersey | Union | 80,955 | 19% | 6% |
| Kansas | Sedgwick | 78,223 | 19% | 7% |
| Illinois | Will | 89,668 | 19% | 33% |
| South Carolina | Richland | 56,264 | 19% | 6% |
| Illinois | Kane | 66,644 | 20% | 21% |
| Florida | Collier | 84,003 | 21% | 13% |
| New York | Suffolk | 266,811 | 21% | 5% |
| NOTE: Only counties with more than 50,000 Medicare beneficiaries are included. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS MA State/County Penetration Files, March 2015. |
||||
|
Table 4: The 50 Largest Counties with the Highest Medicare Advantage Average Annual Growth, 2010 – 2015
– Sorted high to low by Average Annual Medicare Advantage Penetration Growth Rate
|
||||
| State | County | Medicare Beneficiaries, 2015 | Medicare Advantage Penetration Rate, 2015 | Average Annual Medicare Advantage Penetration Growth Rate, 2010 – 2015 |
| Indiana | Lake | 85,379 | 15% | 34% |
| Illinois | Lake | 97,077 | 12% | 34% |
| Illinois | Will | 89,668 | 19% | 33% |
| Illinois | DuPage | 138,544 | 17% | 29% |
| Texas | Hidalgo | 90,690 | 35% | 25% |
| Michigan | Washtenaw | 51,064 | 28% | 23% |
| Illinois | Kane | 66,644 | 20% | 21% |
| Illinois | Cook | 769,309 | 23% | 20% |
| Delaware | Sussex | 56,315 | 5% | 20% |
| Michigan | Macomb | 160,039 | 31% | 19% |
| Michigan | Oakland | 217,794 | 31% | 18% |
| Texas | Travis | 113,201 | 25% | 17% |
| Delaware | New Castle | 89,223 | 10% | 17% |
| Texas | Cameron | 55,294 | 38% | 16% |
| Michigan | Wayne | 312,564 | 32% | 16% |
| Florida | Lake | 86,782 | 32% | 15% |
| North Carolina | Mecklenburg | 119,517 | 31% | 15% |
| Florida | Citrus | 51,772 | 32% | 14% |
| North Carolina | Wake | 117,475 | 31% | 14% |
| Michigan | Genesee | 83,653 | 35% | 14% |
| Maine | Cumberland | 56,599 | 28% | 13% |
| Florida | Collier | 84,003 | 21% | 13% |
| New York | Orange | 56,986 | 17% | 13% |
| Florida | Sumter | 59,153 | 32% | 13% |
| New York | Onondaga | 87,400 | 36% | 12% |
| Connecticut | New London | 50,507 | 18% | 12% |
| South Carolina | Charleston | 63,423 | 18% | 11% |
| South Carolina | Horry | 72,635 | 16% | 11% |
| Florida | Sarasota | 123,056 | 26% | 11% |
| California | Monterey | 57,418 | 2% | 10% |
| New Jersey | Hudson | 77,792 | 22% | 10% |
| Texas | Denton | 73,775 | 28% | 10% |
| Massachusetts | Suffolk | 100,001 | 22% | 10% |
| Indiana | Marion | 133,993 | 27% | 10% |
| Florida | Escambia | 62,360 | 28% | 10% |
| New York | Dutchess | 53,869 | 18% | 10% |
| Illinois | Madison | 50,492 | 30% | 10% |
| North Carolina | Buncombe | 53,135 | 25% | 10% |
| Florida | Duval | 139,652 | 31% | 10% |
| Texas | El Paso | 113,527 | 49% | 9% |
| Wisconsin | Milwaukee | 145,125 | 41% | 9% |
| Texas | Fort Bend | 67,623 | 33% | 9% |
| Florida | Marion | 101,107 | 39% | 9% |
| Connecticut | Hartford | 160,972 | 29% | 9% |
| Arkansas | Pulaski | 69,860 | 18% | 9% |
| Georgia | Fulton | 118,697 | 36% | 9% |
| Georgia | DeKalb | 89,849 | 39% | 9% |
| Florida | Charlotte | 58,326 | 31% | 9% |
| Georgia | Gwinnett | 85,751 | 35% | 9% |
| Tennessee | Shelby | 135,639 | 26% | 9% |
| NOTE: Only counties with more than 50,000 Medicare beneficiaries are included. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS MA State/County Penetration Files, March 2015. |
||||
|
Table 5: The 50 Largest Counties with the Lowest Medicare Advantage Average Annual Growth, 2010 – 2015
– Sorted low to high by Average Annual Medicare Advantage Penetration Growth Rate
|
||||
| State | County | Medicare Beneficiaries, 2015 | Medicare Advantage Penetration Rate, 2015 | Average Annual Medicare Advantage Penetration Growth Rate, 2010 – 2015 |
| California | Santa Barbara | 69,527 | 15% | -5% |
| Pennsylvania | Montgomery | 146,236 | 27% | -3% |
| California | Solano | 67,849 | 39% | -2% |
| Pennsylvania | Chester | 82,420 | 24% | -2% |
| Maryland | Anne Arundel | 83,847 | 6% | -1% |
| Maryland | Baltimore City | 96,704 | 13% | -1% |
| Pennsylvania | Bucks | 121,609 | 32% | -1% |
| Pennsylvania | Delaware | 98,396 | 28% | -1% |
| California | San Luis Obispo | 54,536 | 12% | -1% |
| Massachusetts | Norfolk | 119,955 | 18% | -1% |
| Massachusetts | Worcester | 140,243 | 35% | 0% |
| Arizona | Pinal | 66,374 | 37% | 0% |
| New Jersey | Burlington | 80,871 | 16% | 0% |
| New Jersey | Atlantic | 51,231 | 8% | 0% |
| California | Placer | 71,991 | 45% | 0% |
| Maryland | Baltimore | 146,830 | 9% | 0% |
| Massachusetts | Middlesex | 248,347 | 23% | 0% |
| Oklahoma | Tulsa | 100,323 | 30% | 0% |
| Arizona | Maricopa | 587,995 | 43% | 0% |
| Rhode Island | Providence | 111,469 | 37% | 0% |
| Pennsylvania | Philadelphia | 245,320 | 43% | 0% |
| Massachusetts | Plymouth | 96,905 | 14% | 0% |
| California | Contra Costa | 175,189 | 46% | 1% |
| Oregon | Marion | 55,898 | 58% | 1% |
| California | Marin | 53,125 | 36% | 1% |
| California | San Mateo | 116,237 | 44% | 1% |
| Pennsylvania | Westmoreland | 84,964 | 66% | 1% |
| California | Kern | 104,434 | 36% | 1% |
| California | Alameda | 218,647 | 42% | 1% |
| New York | Richmond | 80,747 | 40% | 1% |
| New York | Monroe | 142,272 | 63% | 1% |
| Pennsylvania | Allegheny | 247,434 | 62% | 1% |
| New Jersey | Camden | 88,147 | 18% | 1% |
| Colorado | Adams | 53,543 | 53% | 1% |
| Oregon | Clackamas | 71,193 | 61% | 1% |
| California | Sacramento | 226,661 | 45% | 1% |
| Colorado | Jefferson | 92,064 | 54% | 1% |
| Alabama | Jefferson | 123,132 | 43% | 1% |
| Pennsylvania | Erie | 54,310 | 45% | 1% |
| Colorado | Denver | 83,249 | 50% | 2% |
| Nevada | Clark | 294,530 | 39% | 2% |
| Arizona | Pima | 187,732 | 47% | 2% |
| Colorado | Arapahoe | 80,342 | 44% | 2% |
| Pennsylvania | Berks | 77,402 | 34% | 2% |
| Oregon | Multnomah | 110,238 | 58% | 2% |
| Oregon | Washington | 74,146 | 57% | 2% |
| New York | Erie | 185,347 | 56% | 2% |
| Massachusetts | Essex | 142,201 | 19% | 2% |
| California | Fresno | 124,905 | 30% | 2% |
| California | Ventura | 129,251 | 29% | 2% |
| NOTE: Only counties with more than 50,000 Medicare beneficiaries are included. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS MA State/County Penetration Files, March 2015. |
||||