Modeling the Impact of Global Health Budget Cuts on HIV, TB, Family Planning, and Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health

President Trump’s fiscal year 2018 budget request would cut global health programs by approximately $2.5 billion. As Congress begins considering the Administration’s request, a new Kaiser Family Foundation analysis models the potential impact of the Administration’s proposed budget, as well as two budget scenarios with more modest decreases.

Among the findings, the impact of global health budget reductions, depending on the size of the cuts, could range from:

• 49,100 to 198,700 additional new HIV infections
• 7,600 to 31,100 additional new TB cases
• 6.5 million to 25 million fewer couples/women receiving contraception
• 7,000 to 31,300 additional maternal, newborn, and child deaths

The analysis uses newly-developed budget impact models that examine the relationship between funding levels in U.S.-supported countries and health outcomes to gauge the magnitude and direction of U.S. global health funding.