How Many Uninsured Adults Could Be Reached If All States Expanded Medicaid?
| Table 1: Nonelderly Adults in Non-Expansion States Who Were Uninsured Before the Pandemic and Would be Medicaid Eligible if Their State Expanded, January 2021 |
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| Newly Eligible for Medicaid if State Expands | ||||
| State | Total | Eligible for Medicaid under non-ACA Pathway | In the Coverage Gap (<100% FPL) |
Eligible for Marketplace Coverage (100%-138% FPL**) |
| All Non-Expansion States | 5,679,000 | 757,000 | 2,802,000 | 2,119,000 |
| Alabama | 275,000 | 32,000 | 155,000 | 88,000 |
| Florida | 1,022,000 | 96,000 | 491,000 | 435,000 |
| Georgia | 656,000 | 105,000 | 342,000 | 208,000 |
| Kansas | 97,000 | 12,000 | 47,000 | 38,000 |
| Mississippi | 203,000 | 25,000 | 114,000 | 65,000 |
| Missouri | 255,000 | 27,000 | 134,000 | 94,000 |
| North Carolina | 457,000 | 56,000 | 234,000 | 167,000 |
| Oklahoma | 232,000 | 34,000 | 117,000 | 82,000 |
| South Carolina | 250,000 | 30,000 | 127,000 | 93,000 |
| South Dakota | 37,000 | 6,000 | 16,000 | 16,000 |
| Tennessee | 292,000 | 50,000 | 138,000 | 104,000 |
| Texas | 1,772,000 | 195,000 | 878,000 | 699,000 |
| Wisconsin* | 109,000 | 87,000 | – | 22,000 |
| Wyoming | 21,000 | N/A | 10,000 | 8,000 |
| NOTES: * Wisconsin provides Medicaid eligibility to adults up the poverty level under a Medicaid waiver. As a result, there is no one in the coverage gap in Wisconsin. ** The “100%-138% FPL” category presented here uses a Marketplace eligibility determination for the lower bound (100% FPL) and a Medicaid eligibility determination for the upper bound (138% FPL) in order to appropriately isolate individuals within the range of potential Medicaid expansions but also with sufficient resources to avoid the coverage gap. Totals may not sum due to rounding. N/A: Sample size too small for reliable estimate. SOURCE: KFF. See Methods for more details. |
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| Table 2: Nonelderly Adults in Non-Expansion States Who Became Uninsured Due to Pandemic Job Losses (March 1st thru May 2nd) and Would Be Medicaid Eligible if Their State Expanded, January 2021 | ||||
| Newly Eligible for Medicaid if State Expands | ||||
| State | Total | Eligible for Medicaid under Non-ACA Pathway | In the Coverage Gap (<100% FPL) |
Eligible for Marketplace Coverage (100%-138% FPL**) |
| All Non-Expansion States | 4,225,000 | 1,127,000 | 1,924,000 | 1,174,000 |
| Alabama | 225,000 | 53,000 | 115,000 | 57,000 |
| Florida | 741,000 | 149,000 | 351,000 | 241,000 |
| Georgia | 802,000 | 209,000 | 398,000 | 195,000 |
| Kansas | 112,000 | 29,000 | 52,000 | 31,000 |
| Mississippi | 113,000 | 29,000 | 58,000 | 27,000 |
| Missouri | 242,000 | 50,000 | 119,000 | 73,000 |
| North Carolina | 367,000 | 86,000 | 178,000 | 104,000 |
| Oklahoma | 163,000 | 43,000 | 74,000 | 46,000 |
| South Carolina | 211,000 | 52,000 | 99,000 | 61,000 |
| South Dakota | 15,000 | N/A | 7,000 | 5,000 |
| Tennessee | 206,000 | 57,000 | 86,000 | 63,000 |
| Texas | 798,000 | 173,000 | 382,000 | 243,000 |
| Wisconsin* | 213,000 | 189,000 | – | 24,000 |
| Wyoming | 16,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| NOTES: * Wisconsin provides Medicaid eligibility to adults up the poverty level under a Medicaid waiver. As a result, there is no one in the coverage gap in Wisconsin. ** The “100%-138% FPL” category presented here uses a Marketplace eligibility determination for the lower bound (100% FPL) and a Medicaid eligibility determination for the upper bound (138% FPL) in order to appropriately isolate individuals within the range of potential Medicaid expansions but also with sufficient resources to avoid the coverage gap. Totals may not sum due to rounding. N/A: Sample size too small for reliable estimate. SOURCE: KFF. See Methods for more details. |
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| Table 3: Nonelderly Adults in Non-Expansion States Who Were Uninsured Before the Pandemic or Lost ESI due to Pandemic and Would be Medicaid Eligible if Their State Expanded, January 2021 | ||||
| Newly Eligible for Medicaid if State Expands | ||||
| State | Total | Eligible for Medicaid under Non-ACA Pathway |
In the Coverage Gap (<100% FPL) |
Eligible for Marketplace Coverage (100%-138% FPL**) |
| All Non-Expansion States | 9,904,000 | 1,884,000 | 4,727,000 | 3,293,000 |
| Alabama | 500,000 | 85,000 | 270,000 | 145,000 |
| Florida | 1,764,000 | 245,000 | 842,000 | 676,000 |
| Georgia | 1,458,000 | 315,000 | 740,000 | 403,000 |
| Kansas | 209,000 | 41,000 | 99,000 | 69,000 |
| Mississippi | 317,000 | 53,000 | 171,000 | 92,000 |
| Missouri | 497,000 | 77,000 | 253,000 | 167,000 |
| North Carolina | 825,000 | 142,000 | 411,000 | 271,000 |
| Oklahoma | 395,000 | 77,000 | 190,000 | 128,000 |
| South Carolina | 461,000 | 82,000 | 226,000 | 153,000 |
| South Dakota | 52,000 | 9,000 | 23,000 | 20,000 |
| Tennessee | 499,000 | 107,000 | 224,000 | 167,000 |
| Texas | 2,570,000 | 368,000 | 1,260,000 | 942,000 |
| Wisconsin* | 322,000 | 276,000 | – | 46,000 |
| Wyoming | 37,000 | 7,000 | 17,000 | 13,000 |
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NOTES: * Wisconsin provides Medicaid eligibility to adults up the poverty level under a Medicaid waiver. As a result, there is no one in the coverage gap in Wisconsin. ** The “100%-138% FPL” category presented here uses a Marketplace eligibility determination for the lower bound (100% FPL) and a Medicaid eligibility determination for the upper bound (138% FPL) in order to appropriately isolate individuals within the range of potential Medicaid expansions but also with sufficient resources to avoid the coverage gap. Totals may not sum due to rounding. N/A: Sample size too small for reliable estimate.
SOURCE: KFF. See Methods for more details.
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