The Public’s Views on Vaccines, Mandates and More

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In light of President-elect Trump’s announcement that he intends to nominate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, to head the Department of Health and Human Services, it’s worth reviewing what we know about the current state of U.S. public opinion on vaccines, and how some of those attitudes have shifted over the last few years. Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, partisanship emerged as a strong predictor of attitudes and uptake of COVID vaccines, with Democrats more likely to get vaccinated and to hold positive views of these vaccines compared to Republicans. While overall confidence in childhood vaccines remained high over this period, views on school vaccine mandates shifted somewhat, with a larger share of the public (28%, including 35% of parents) saying parents should be able to opt out of school MMR vaccine mandates. A new KFF analysis also finds that routine childhood vaccination rates have continued to decline, while exemptions from school vaccine requirements have increased.

Our polling also has found that much of the public has been exposed to misinformation about vaccines, including false claims about COVID-19 vaccines causing infertility and MMR vaccines causing autism. While small shares (3% each) are convinced these claims are “definitely true,” more than six in ten express some level of uncertainty, leading to confusion that can make it difficult for individuals to understand the benefits and risks of vaccines for themselves and their children.

In this environment, trusted, credible sources of vaccine information are critical. While large shares of the public trust their own doctors for vaccine advice, there has been a shift in other trusted sources of information, with trust in the CDC, FDA, and local public health agencies declining over the course of the pandemic, particularly among Republicans. With Trump and RFK expected to bring changes to these agencies, it’s worth paying attention to what happens with public trust moving forward, and KFF will continue to track this in our polling. While Trump has claimed his victory represents a mandate for his agenda, that may not translate to every corner of health policy and public health. Our analysis of AP VoteCast finds that fewer than a quarter of voters want to decrease government involvement in ensuring childhood vaccinations, suggesting the public may not be eager for disruption in this area.