Looking Beyond the Horse Race in Election Polls

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As the November election approaches, increasing numbers of people look to polls as a crystal ball to forecast who will emerge as the eventual winner. Many people – including those of us who design and conduct surveys for a living – will tell you this is not a good idea, but it’s not because the polls themselves are not trustworthy. Cries of “don’t trust the polls” ignore the scientific rigor and attention to detail that remains a hallmark of high-quality election polls. However, even the most carefully-designed polls are not precise enough to predict the outcome in an election as close as this one promises to be.

Does that mean you should ignore all polls between now and Nov 5? No! There is still much to be learned from polls about the mood of the electorate and people’s views on health care and other issues if you look beyond the question of “who are you going to vote for?”

Here are two examples of important insights from KFF election-related polls:

• Democrats and Republicans have historically placed different levels of importance on health care as a voting issue, but  a recent KFF poll showed that when asked what health care issue they most want to hear about from candidates, the top answer for voters on both sides of the aisle was addressing the high cost of health care, illustrating that health care remains a pocketbook issue for voters as it has for many election cycles.
• Our Survey of Women Voters found that between June and September, an increasing share of women believed the presidential election would have a major impact on abortion access in the US, and abortion increased as a voting issue for young women, ranking alongside the economy in the top spot for this group. These changes illustrate the evolution of abortion as an election issue over the course of the 2024 campaign, particularly as President Biden left the race and Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.

While these data points may not add up to a prediction of the election outcome, they provide important context about the factors voters are weighing in their decisions and illustrate the types of health issues the public wants the government to focus on no matter who wins.

My advice: You don’t have to ignore all poll results between now and election day, but if you are a poll consumer, make sure you’re consuming a balanced diet of polling that includes more than just the horse race question.