Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA): State-by-State Estimates of Reductions in Federal Medicaid Funding
| Table 1: Estimated Change in Federal Medicaid Funds under BCRA, 2020-2029 ($ in millions) | |||
| State | Change Due to: | Total Change in Federal Funds | |
| Phase Out of Enhanced Match for ACA Expansion | Per Enrollee Cap on All Groups | ||
| US Total | -301,832 | -217,563 | -519,395 |
| Alabama | N/A | -2,032 | -2,032 |
| Alaska | -1,052 | -776 | -1,827 |
| Arizona | -5,675 | -6,129 | -11,804 |
| Arkansas | -3,325 | -4,137 | -7,463 |
| California | -88,549 | -31,281 | -119,830 |
| Colorado | -6,370 | -2,799 | -9,169 |
| Connecticut | -6,202 | -2,076 | -8,278 |
| Delaware | -1,616 | -772 | -2,389 |
| DC | -785 | -1,247 | -2,032 |
| Florida | N/A | -7,516 | -7,516 |
| Georgia | N/A | -6,634 | -6,634 |
| Hawaii | -2,057 | -871 | -2,929 |
| Idaho | N/A | -930 | -930 |
| Illinois | -13,720 | -6,141 | -19,861 |
| Indiana | -6,692 | -4,352 | -11,043 |
| Iowa | -2,632 | -1,880 | -4,512 |
| Kansas | N/A | -1,136 | -1,136 |
| Kentucky | -6,613 | -5,010 | -11,623 |
| Louisiana | -4,264 | -3,500 | -7,764 |
| Maine | N/A | -1,201 | -1,201 |
| Maryland | -7,050 | -3,991 | -11,042 |
| Massachusetts | -7,582 | -6,235 | -13,817 |
| Michigan | -9,758 | -8,572 | -18,330 |
| Minnesota | -8,103 | -4,340 | -12,443 |
| Mississippi | N/A | -2,458 | -2,458 |
| Missouri | N/A | -4,200 | -4,200 |
| Montana | -947 | -656 | -1,603 |
| Nebraska | N/A | -636 | -636 |
| Nevada | -2,705 | -1,550 | -4,255 |
| New Hampshire | -1,353 | -663 | -2,015 |
| New Jersey | -11,567 | -4,689 | -16,256 |
| New Mexico | -3,081 | -3,229 | -6,310 |
| New York | -45,130 | -14,139 | -59,270 |
| North Carolina | N/A | -6,973 | -6,973 |
| North Dakota | -675 | -348 | -1,023 |
| Ohio | -10,781 | -9,739 | -20,520 |
| Oklahoma | N/A | -2,580 | -2,580 |
| Oregon | -7,919 | -3,340 | -11,259 |
| Pennsylvania | -17,292 | -7,565 | -24,857 |
| Rhode Island | -1,911 | -968 | -2,879 |
| South Carolina | N/A | -3,653 | -3,653 |
| South Dakota | N/A | -335 | -335 |
| Tennessee | N/A | -5,462 | -5,462 |
| Texas | N/A | -15,951 | -15,951 |
| Utah | N/A | -1,627 | -1,627 |
| Vermont | -1,068 | -737 | -1,805 |
| Virginia | N/A | -2,899 | -2,899 |
| Washington | -13,864 | -4,941 | -18,805 |
| West Virginia | -1,496 | -1,890 | -3,386 |
| Wisconsin | N/A | -2,578 | -2,578 |
| Wyoming | N/A | -197 | -197 |
| NOTE: N/A: State did not expand Medicaid under the ACA. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation estimates, July 2017 | |||
| Table 2: Estimated Change in Federal Medicaid Funds under BCRA, 2029 ($ in millions) | |||
| State | Change Due to: | Total Change in Federal Funds | |
| Phase Out of Enhanced Match for ACA Expansion | Per Enrollee Cap on All Groups | ||
| US Total | -49,850 | -64,091 | -113,941 |
| Alabama | N/A | -539 | -539 |
| Alaska | -176 | -210 | -386 |
| Arizona | -870 | -1,794 | -2,664 |
| Arkansas | -505 | -1,172 | -1,677 |
| California | -14,838 | -10,232 | -25,070 |
| Colorado | -1,067 | -879 | -1,947 |
| Connecticut | -1,039 | -762 | -1,801 |
| Delaware | -266 | -248 | -514 |
| DC | -120 | -353 | -474 |
| Florida | N/A | -2,008 | -2,008 |
| Georgia | N/A | -1,511 | -1,511 |
| Hawaii | -340 | -281 | -621 |
| Idaho | N/A | -232 | -232 |
| Illinois | -2,295 | -1,937 | -4,232 |
| Indiana | -1,058 | -1,387 | -2,445 |
| Iowa | -430 | -568 | -999 |
| Kansas | N/A | -298 | -298 |
| Kentucky | -1,002 | -1,605 | -2,608 |
| Louisiana | -681 | -1,048 | -1,729 |
| Maine | N/A | -309 | -309 |
| Maryland | -1,181 | -1,183 | -2,365 |
| Massachusetts | -1,270 | -1,763 | -3,033 |
| Michigan | -1,550 | -2,467 | -4,017 |
| Minnesota | -1,358 | -1,303 | -2,661 |
| Mississippi | N/A | -634 | -634 |
| Missouri | N/A | -1,072 | -1,072 |
| Montana | -150 | -198 | -348 |
| Nebraska | N/A | -171 | -171 |
| Nevada | -427 | -504 | -931 |
| New Hampshire | -227 | -203 | -429 |
| New Jersey | -1,938 | -1,374 | -3,312 |
| New Mexico | -462 | -955 | -1,418 |
| New York | -7,562 | -5,351 | -12,914 |
| North Carolina | N/A | -1,689 | -1,689 |
| North Dakota | -113 | -109 | -222 |
| Ohio | -1,730 | -2,878 | -4,609 |
| Oklahoma | N/A | -616 | -616 |
| Oregon | -1,266 | -1,113 | -2,379 |
| Pennsylvania | -2,885 | -2,559 | -5,444 |
| Rhode Island | -319 | -290 | -610 |
| South Carolina | N/A | -861 | -861 |
| South Dakota | N/A | -85 | -85 |
| Tennessee | N/A | -1,321 | -1,321 |
| Texas | N/A | -3,790 | -3,790 |
| Utah | N/A | -371 | -371 |
| Vermont | -177 | -207 | -385 |
| Virginia | N/A | -745 | -745 |
| Washington | -2,323 | -1,525 | -3,848 |
| West Virginia | -222 | -568 | -790 |
| Wisconsin | N/A | -760 | -760 |
| Wyoming | N/A | -50 | -50 |
| NOTE: N/A: State did not expand Medicaid under the ACA. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation estimates, July 2017 | |||
| Table 3: Impact of Dropping ACA Medicaid Expansion under BCRA among States that Expanded Medicaid as of July 2017, 2020-2029 ($ Millions) |
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| State | Loss of Federal Funds Due to Phase Out of Enhanced FMAP & Per Enrollee Cap | Additional Loss of Federal Funds if Drop ACA Expansion | Total Loss of Federal Funds |
| US Total | -519,395 | -684,712 | -1,204,107 |
| Alaska | -1,827 | -1,967 | -3,795 |
| Arizona | -11,804 | -23,972 | -35,775 |
| Arkansas | -7,463 | -14,778 | -22,240 |
| California | -119,830 | -165,638 | -285,468 |
| Colorado | -9,169 | -11,915 | -21,084 |
| Connecticut | -8,278 | -11,601 | -19,879 |
| Delaware | -2,389 | -3,814 | -6,203 |
| DC | -2,032 | -3,336 | -5,368 |
| Hawaii | -2,929 | -4,566 | -7,494 |
| Illinois | -19,861 | -26,336 | -46,197 |
| Indiana | -11,043 | -23,004 | -34,047 |
| Iowa | -4,512 | -6,721 | -11,233 |
| Kentucky | -11,623 | -29,858 | -41,481 |
| Louisiana | -7,764 | -13,477 | -21,241 |
| Maryland | -11,042 | -13,188 | -24,230 |
| Massachusetts | -13,817 | -14,183 | -28,000 |
| Michigan | -18,330 | -32,351 | -50,682 |
| Minnesota | -12,443 | -15,157 | -27,599 |
| Montana | -1,603 | -3,224 | -4,827 |
| Nevada | -4,255 | -9,368 | -13,623 |
| New Hampshire | -2,015 | -2,530 | -4,545 |
| New Jersey | -16,256 | -21,637 | -37,892 |
| New Mexico | -6,310 | -14,675 | -20,985 |
| New York | -59,270 | -84,420 | -143,689 |
| North Dakota | -1,023 | -1,262 | -2,285 |
| Ohio | -20,520 | -32,774 | -53,294 |
| Oregon | -11,259 | -24,956 | -36,215 |
| Pennsylvania | -24,857 | -34,480 | -59,337 |
| Rhode Island | -2,879 | -3,762 | -6,641 |
| Vermont | -1,805 | -2,259 | -4,064 |
| Washington | -18,805 | -25,934 | -44,739 |
| West Virginia | -3,386 | -7,571 | -10,956 |
| NOTE: US Total includes spending in non-expansion states. Figures may not sum due to rounding. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation estimates, July 2017. |
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| Table 4: Impact of Dropping ACA Medicaid Expansion under BCRA among States that Expanded Medicaid as of July 2017, 2029 | |||||
| Loss of Federal Funds Due to Phase Out of Enhanced FMAP & Per Enrollee Cap ($ Millions) |
Additional Loss of Federal Funds if Drop ACA Expansion ($ Millions) |
Total Loss of Federal Funds ($ Millions) |
Change in Medicaid Enrollment Due to Dropping Expansion | % Change in Total Enrollment | |
| US Total | -113,941 | -79,724 | -193,665 | -18,679,000 | -19% |
| Alaska | -386 | -220 | -607 | -41,000 | -19% |
| Arizona | -2,664 | -3,024 | -5,688 | -526,000 | -21% |
| Arkansas | -1,677 | -1,872 | -3,549 | -382,000 | -19% |
| California | -25,070 | -18,547 | -43,618 | -4,448,000 | -29% |
| Colorado | -1,947 | -1,334 | -3,281 | -534,000 | -30% |
| Connecticut | -1,801 | -1,299 | -3,100 | -261,000 | -24% |
| Delaware | -514 | -447 | -961 | -85,000 | -31% |
| DC | -474 | -421 | -895 | -79,000 | -23% |
| Hawaii | -621 | -529 | -1,151 | -138,000 | -31% |
| Illinois | -4,232 | -2,966 | -7,198 | -855,000 | -21% |
| Indiana | -2,445 | -2,842 | -5,287 | -479,000 | -31% |
| Iowa | -999 | -798 | -1,797 | -188,000 | -23% |
| Kentucky | -2,608 | -3,788 | -6,395 | -557,000 | -33% |
| Louisiana | -1,729 | -1,649 | -3,378 | -510,000 | -25% |
| Maryland | -2,365 | -1,477 | -3,841 | -312,000 | -21% |
| Massachusetts | -3,033 | -1,588 | -4,621 | -500,000 | -19% |
| Michigan | -4,017 | -3,981 | -7,997 | -800,000 | -25% |
| Minnesota | -2,661 | -1,697 | -4,358 | -280,000 | -19% |
| Montana | -348 | -398 | -746 | -79,000 | -31% |
| Nevada | -931 | -1,158 | -2,089 | -256,000 | -35% |
| New Hampshire | -429 | -283 | -713 | -66,000 | -26% |
| New Jersey | -3,312 | -2,423 | -5,735 | -694,000 | -33% |
| New Mexico | -1,418 | -1,870 | -3,287 | -305,000 | -28% |
| New York | -12,914 | -9,453 | -22,367 | -2,714,000 | -31% |
| North Dakota | -222 | -141 | -363 | -27,000 | -22% |
| Ohio | -4,609 | -3,990 | -8,599 | -858,000 | -21% |
| Oregon | -2,379 | -3,052 | -5,431 | -692,000 | -48% |
| Pennsylvania | -5,444 | -3,915 | -9,359 | -883,000 | -25% |
| Rhode Island | -610 | -426 | -1,036 | -76,000 | -21% |
| Vermont | -385 | -260 | -644 | -79,000 | -33% |
| Washington | -3,848 | -2,904 | -6,752 | -747,000 | -31% |
| West Virginia | -790 | -969 | -1,759 | -227,000 | -30% |
| NOTE: US Total includes spending in non-expansion states. Figures may not sum due to rounding. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation estimates, July 2017. |
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