The Coverage Gap: Uninsured Poor Adults in States that Do Not Expand Medicaid
The Coverage Gap: Uninsured Poor Adults in States that Do Not Expand Medicaid – Issue Brief – 8505-02
Urban Institute and Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured analysis based on the Census Bureau's March 2013 Current Population Survey (CPS: Annual Social and Economic Supplements).
The 2013 federal poverty guideline for a family of three was $19,530. See: http://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty/13poverty.cfm
Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of March 2013 Current Population Survey. See Methods Box for more detail.
Some of these states currently provide more limited benefits than Medicaid to childless adults under Section 1115 Medicaid waiver demonstration authority.
Wisconsin has a pending waiver that would provide full Medicaid coverage to parents and childless adults up to 100% FPL as of January 1, 2014.
These states currently have additional coverage for parents or other adults above state plan limits through a section 1115 demonstration or a pending demonstration proposal. The demonstrations include limits on eligibility and/or benefits, do not offer coverage to all residents of the state, and/or include an enrollment cap.
The methods for arriving at this estimate can be found on the Kaiser Family Foundation Subsidy Calculator, (available here: http://www.kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/). The calculator is based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections from July 2012 (Available here: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43472-07-24-2012-CoverageEstimates.pdf)
Kaiser Family Foundation. State-by-State Estimates of the Number of People Eligible for Premium Tax Credits Under the Affordable Care Act. November 2013. Available at: http://kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/state-by-state-estimates-of-the-number-of-people-eligible-for-premium-tax-credits-under-the-affordable-care-act/.
State Health Access Data Assistance Center. 2013. “State Estimates of the Low-income Uninsured Not Eligible for the ACA Medicaid Expansion.” Issue Brief #35. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota. Available at: http://www.rwjf.org/content/dam/farm/reports/issue_briefs/2013/rwjf404825.
Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured. Fact Sheet: Medicaid Eligibility for Adults as of January 1, 2014. (Washington, DC: Kaiser Family Foundation), October 1, 2014. Available at: http://www.kff.org/medicaid/fact-sheet/medicaid-eligibility-for-adults-as-of-january-1-2014/.
Non-MAGI pathways for nonelderly adults include disability-related pathways, such as SSI beneficiary; Qualified Severely Impaired Individuals; Working Disabled; and Medically Needy. We are unable to assess disability status in the CPS sufficiently to model eligibility under these pathways. However, previous research indicates high current participation rates among individuals with disabilities (largely due to the automatic link between SSI and Medicaid in most states, see Kenney GM, V Lynch, J Haley, and M Huntress. “Variation in Medicaid Eligibility and Participation among Adults: Implications for the Affordable Care Act.” Inquiry. 49:231-53 (Fall 2012)), indicating that there may be a small number of eligible uninsured individuals in this group. Further, many of these pathways (with the exception of SSI, which automatically links an individual to Medicaid in most states) are optional for states, and eligibility in states not implementing the ACA expansion is limited. For example, the median income eligibility level for coverage through the Medically Needy pathway is 15% of poverty in states that are not expanding Medicaid, and most states not expanding Medicaid do not provide coverage above SSI levels for individuals with disabilities. (See: O’Mally-Watts, M and K Young. The Medicaid Medically Needy Program: Spending and Enrollment Update. (Washington, DC: Kaiser Family Foundation), December 2012. Available at: http://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/the-medicaid-medically-needy-program-spending-and/. And Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured, “Medicaid Financial Eligibility: Primary Pathways for the Elderly and People with Disabilities,” February 2010. Available at: http://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-financial-eligibility-primary-pathways-for-the-elderly-and-people-with-disabilities/.